Morgan Stanley Research recently published a major report, "Lessons from the Five Innovation Waves That Preceded AI,” taking a historical lens across 250 years and five major waves of innovation to try and get a grasp on what AI (“the sixth wave”) can mean for the economy today. While the report focuses on Wall Street and broader economic implications, there’s rich commentary for any industry trying to figure out if and when to invest in AI tools. Here, we pulled out key themes and actionable takeaways specifically for contractors and landscapers.
Takeaway 1: AI can boost productivity if you tell it where to focus
Across the prior innovation waves, productivity per worker got a boost, tending to even double across waves. But these changes don’t happen overnight, or uniformly. Some industries need to rethink their strategy around investments, processes, and infrastructure.
For contractors considering implementing AI, simply dropping a tool into your workflow doesn’t mean your business will change overnight. Operations benefitting the most are the ones who choose:
- Specific problems and pain points to focus on. For example, if you lose projects because estimates take too long, or get multiple bid requests with the same deadline and can’t hit them all, you could focus on faster estimates.
- AI models trained on and specifically developed for their industry. For example, a tool like Bobyard is going to be more effective to help with takeoffs and estimates, versus simply uploading a blueprint into ChatGPT.
Takeaway 2: Estimating as a profession isn’t ending, but the job is changing
Though new innovations can mean entire industries disappear, or sought after skills become irrelevant, the need for work endures. The pattern tends to be reallocation versus total elimination.
Construction is an industry ripe for innovation. Estimators using AI can now handle much higher volumes, faster. The risk isn’t that estimating disappears entirely, but that estimators fall behind to a competitor who can out-bid them on speed and volume.
The best play? Invest not just in the budget for getting these tools, but in the education needed to uplevel and augment your or your employees' skillsets. Attending events, following industry-specific educators like The Grow Group or Byron Smith, and even vendor-provided training (like this blog) can be helpful.
For business owners, look at it as a training opportunity rather than as a replacement and headcount play. You still need teammates and talent in the trade to manage client relations, execute the strategy, and make decisions—which they’ll be more freed up to do with less manual estimating work that AI can help tackle.
Takeaway 3: The adoption window is shrinking
In prior innovation waves, it took society decades to adapt. Even the internet era took 15-20 years before it became table stakes. AI, however, is going deeper into more corners of our personal and professional lives, faster than any other innovation before.
Contractors who wait for the technology to "mature" may find their competitors have already locked in major operational gains, and are using it for further innovations. Beyond that, they may find that sticking to “the way it’s always been done” is prohibitively slow, doesn’t meet customer expectations, or isn’t even possible as other systems also update the way they work.
You don't need to go all-in tomorrow, but you should be piloting tools now. Start with one area of your workflow—like takeoffs, for example—and learn what works for your team.
Takeaway 4: There will be booms and busts
The report notes that, “volatility and boom-bust cycles are not accidents of innovation, they are necessary companions” with the creation of the railroad and the dot-com era being prime examples. Though the crash of the dot-com bubble brought failure, economic crisis, and loss, the underlying infrastructure (internet-based companies, fiber networks, data centers, and software systems) served as the foundation for subsequent recovery and growth.
Taking a middle-ground, diversified approach is likely the best course. This resonates with our prior tip: choose a few areas to explore with AI. You don’t need to go all-in on everything or put your eggs in one tool’s basket, but ignoring it entirely could also be risky. As our Founder and CEO Michael Ding put it at SmartCon 2026:
"AI can't be both a bubble and going to take over all our jobs. In reality, it's probably somewhere in between."
The bottom line: it’s all about how you manage the transition
Across hundreds of years of innovation, the pattern shows that while the short-term can bring disruption and volatility, in the long-term, productivity, innovation, and growth shine through to set up the next wave. What matters is how you manage the transition—whether you’re an estimator, business owner, or an industry leader. The companies that tend to thrive are the ones that invest in their people alongside new technology to figure out how to make the best of both.
The question now isn’t whether or not AI will reshape the construction industry, it’s whether you’re ahead of the curve or catching up. Bobyard is here to help you get ahead now, with tons of other customers already making the transition.